Texas vs Ohio State Prediction: A Rematch Seven Months in the Making
The Setup
When the Texas Longhorns travel to Columbus for Big Noon Kickoff, they'll be walking into one of the most anticipated rematches in recent memory. This isn't just any season opener, it's a direct sequel to last year's thrilling College Football Playoff semifinal in the Cotton Bowl, a game that has since seen 26 of its participants drafted into the NFL (14 from Ohio State).
The betting market tells the story of uncertainty. What opened as a 2.5-point spread in favor of Ohio State has tightened to just 1-1.5 points, with the total plummeting from 51 to 47.5 points. This movement reflects the reality both teams face: they're have a ton of new faces and question marks going into Week 1.
Coaching and Personnel Challenges
The coaching carousel has significantly impacted Ohio State's preparation. While Texas returns with continuity under Steve Sarkisian and both coordinators, Ohio State's Ryan Day has had to replace both his offensive coordinator (Chip Kelly, now with the Raiders) and defensive coordinator (Jim Knowles, now at Penn State). The new coordinators, Brian Hartline and Matt Patricia respectively, face the challenge of implementing their systems with limited time.
Ohio State's offensive line presents another major concern. Ranked 63rd in PFF grade last season, the unit lost both starting tackles and their center. None of the projected starters carry a PFF grade above 70, creating potential vulnerability against a Texas pass rush that will look to exploit this weakness.
Quarterback Hype Vs Reality
The quarterback position represents the biggest question mark for both programs. Ohio State turns to Julian Sayin, a five-star recruit who must replace Will Howard in his first major test. While Sayin possesses undeniable talent, he's stepping into a pressure cooker environment against a Texas defense that will be eager to make a statement.
Texas starts the highly anticipated Arch Manning era. Despite the famous surname and considerable hype, Manning's limited sample size raises legitimate concerns. While he has done well in a small sample size against inferior opponents (Colorado State, UTSA, Louisiana-Monroe, and a 2-10 Mississippi State team), his limited exposure to elite competition highlight the skepticism surrounding his readiness for this stage.
The X-Factors
Two players could swing this game dramatically. Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith, widely considered one of the two best players in college football alongside safety Caleb Downs, managed just one catch for three yards in last year's semifinal. Expect the Buckeyes to target him early and often as they seek to establish offensive rhythm.
For Texas, the key lies in whether their rebuilt offense can function efficiently enough to support Manning. With only 29% of last year's offensive production returning, the Longhorns will need immediate chemistry and execution.
Prediction and Analysis
What should be the marquee matchup of the weekend, our model shows an edge on Ohio State -2.5 at -110 and is an official play for us. To view our complete model output to see bets for every NFL and D1 CFB game, sign up for our monthly or season long subscription!