LSU vs. Clemson: A Death Valley Duel with Playoff Implications
The rivalry between the two Death Valleys adds a spicy narrative to this top-10 showdown. This Week 1 clash is a pivotal moment for both teams' College Football Playoff aspirations and our model shows a clear winner.
The Quarterback Battle
This game features one of the best quarterback matchups of the year. LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, a fifth-year senior, is looking to follow in the footsteps of Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels and have a Heisman-caliber season. Across the field, Clemson's Cade Klubnik was one of the highest graded QBs last year and is a potential first-round NFL draft pick with the mobility to give defenses fits.
Trenches and Turnovers
The game will likely be won or lost in the trenches. LSU's completely rebuilt offensive line, with five new starters, will face a baptism by fire against Clemson's elite defensive front, led by defensive tackle Peter Woods and defensive ends TJ Parker and Purdue transfer Will Heldt. On the other side of the ball, LSU's revamped secondary, bolstered by key transfers such as AJ Haulcy (S, Houston) Mansoor Delane (CB, Virginia Tech), and Tamarcus Cooley (S, NC State), will be tested by Clemson's talented wide receivers in Bryant Wesco Jr, TJ Moore and Antonio Williams. Heavy reliance on transfer talent has not routinely panned out and LSU will need it to as they ranked 98th in pass grade and 103rd in explosive plays allowed last season.
Coaching and Motivation
LSU head coach Brian Kelly's comments calling Clemson "Death Valley Jr." have undoubtedly added fuel to the fire for Dabo Swinney's squad. Swinney is known for his ability to motivate his team, and you can be sure that he will use Kelly's words as bulletin board material. LSU, on the other hand, is looking to prove that they can contain a mobile quarterback, a weakness that plagued them last season.
Much is made about Kelly’s 0-3 record in season openers at LSU (and LSU’s overall Week 1 losing streak going back to 2020) and how it will fuel this team to a win but let’s not forget that Clemson has lost their last two openers against Georgia and Duke. This idea that one team wants it more simply because they’ve had slow starts is not a narrative we’re buying.
Prediction and Analysis
Our model makes the raw number Clemson -5 and at a line of -4 at -110, there is a 49.7% probability of them covering which isn’t enough edge for us to bet officially.
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