How Far Can Your College Football Team Go This Season?
2024 National Champions: THE Ohio State Buckeyes
What Actually Predicts Success in College Football? A Data-Driven Breakdown
Every offseason, college football fans and analysts alike speculate on which teams will rise and which will fall. Last year, Arizona State was supposed to finished last in the Big 12 and Florida State was going to be a team to be feared across all conferences. We all know how that went. If there’s a lesson to be learned here, it’s that the talking heads and their “hot takes” are just meaningless guesses. If we look at the data, there are factors that clearly align with how well a team will do week to week and over the course of the season.
Let’s break them down.
1. Offensive Returning Production
Teams that bring back a large chunk of their offensive starters—especially the quarterback—tend to outperform expectations. Continuity on offense leads to smoother execution, fewer early-season miscues, and more consistent scoring. You can see how teams stack up on returning production below.
Why it matters: Returning quarterbacks are often the biggest X-factor in preseason projections. A proven leader under center raises both the ceiling and floor for a team’s offense.
Offensive and Defensive returning production. Teams in the top right corner are bringing back an above average percentage of offensive and defensive playmakers
2. Offensive Efficiency (EPA/Play)
It’s not just about returning players—it’s about returning production. Teams that were already efficient last season and retain their core contributors see a compounding effect. Likewise, teams that were very inefficient last year and bringing back the same players may not have as much to be excited about.
Why it matters: A top-25 EPA/play offense that returns most of its starters is a high-floor, high-ceiling unit. Those are teams you don’t want to fade blindly.
Offensive and Defensive Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. The further to the right a team is, the better they are offensively. The closer to the top they are, the better they are defensively.
3. Defensive Returning Production & Efficiency
The offense gets all the love but defense wins championships, right? Defense gets overlooked, but it's often the difference in close games. Teams with strong returning defensive production and a history of limiting explosive plays are far less likely to suffer late-game collapses.
Why it matters: Stable defenses help avoid the "back-breaking loss" that tanks season-long expectations or costs bettors a tight cover.
4. Coaching and Scheme Continuity
Success in college football is fragile. A new coordinator or scheme can take a team to new heights OR cause disruption even for teams with talent. On the flip side, returning both coordinators and the head coach often means stability and year-over-year improvement.
Why it matters: Coaching continuity is a hidden advantage. It leads to more efficient playcalling, quicker adjustments, and fewer mid-season identity crises.
5. The Blue Chip Ratio
Talent still reigns supreme. The “Blue Chip Ratio”—the percentage of a roster made up of 4- and 5-star recruits—is a strong predictor of a team’s floor. The more talent you have, the more you can weather injuries, schedule challenges, and luck regression because at the end of the day, you have DUDES.
Why it matters: The best teams don’t just have stars—they have depth. Elite recruiting builds resilience into a program.
So, How Far Can Your Team Go?
At BTB Analytics, we take all of these key variables—returning production, efficiency, continuity, and talent— to figure out the true ceilings and floors for teams. The result? Forecasts that aren’t trying to go viral but actually built on years of statistical modeling and real-world validation.
Our free College Football Data section has all of this information and more for you to enjoy!