Is Extra Rest Really an Edge in the NFL? A Data-Driven Look at Rest Differential
Introduction: Why Rest Differential Matters
NFL fans and analysts often debate whether teams with more days of rest—especially those coming off bye weeks—have a competitive edge. Rest differential refers to the difference in recovery and preparation time between two competing teams. It's widely assumed that more rest equals better performance. But does the data support that?
Researchers Michael J. Lopez and Thompson Bliss, on behalf of the NFL League Office, used advanced statistical models to analyze over 20 years of NFL game outcomes and betting data to answer this question.
Key Findings
🟢 The Bye Week Advantage Was Real—But Isn't Anymore
Before 2011: Teams coming off a bye week had a +2.2 point per game advantage, comparable to the home field advantage.
After 2011: That advantage dropped dramatically to +0.3 points and was no longer statistically significant.
Why? The 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement mandated four days off during bye weeks, which reduced practice time for those on bye. The study suggests preparation—not just rest—is the key driver of any edge.
🟡 Betting Markets Adjusted… Perhaps Too Much
Despite the drop in actual game impact, betting markets increased their estimated value of a bye week advantage post-2011—from +0.39 to +0.97 points.
Ironically, this implies that betting markets may now slightly overestimate the benefit of bye weeks.
🟡 Mini-Bye (e.g., Thursday Night Football) Offers No Clear Edge
A “mini-bye” (10 days of rest after a Thursday game) showed no statistically significant advantage in game outcomes.
Betting markets reflect this reality and do not value the mini-bye as a competitive edge.
🟡 MNF Rest Edge is Small but Consistent
Teams facing opponents who played on Monday Night Football do have a small edge.
Estimated at +0.37 points in betting markets, and +0.18 points in actual point differential—suggesting some benefit from having a full extra day to prepare.
Implications for Fans, Bettors, and the League
For Bettors:
Don’t overrate rest as a betting angle—especially post-bye week.
The KEY exception is for injured impact players where the difference in rest may allow them to play effectively versus not play at all
Market efficiency has improved, but small edges (like the MNF differential) may still be underappreciated.
This study does not mention the increase in international games. There may still be edges in monitoring how a team chooses to approach travel and rest going into and out of these games
Conclusion: The Myth of Rest Has Evolved
While the study provides an argument against the rest differential advantage, it should be noted this was done for the NFL League office so there is always a possibility of a conflict of interest. As the game continues to evolve—and as scheduling becomes more complex—understanding what truly gives teams an edge is critical for coaches, bettors, and league officials alike.
You can find those variables that truly gives a team an edge in our NFL and CFB models. We take all of the guesswork out of it and show you exactly how much edge exists in any game at any given line. If you want to check that out, be sure to sign up for our Member Access.