If you've ever gone to place an NFL bet and stared at the line wondering whether to buy that extra half point — this article is for you.

Let’s set the scene:
You’re looking at a line that says your team is +3. You’re tempted to move it to +3.5 by paying a little more in juice. This is what’s known as “buying the hook.” It feels like a smarter play — after all, why push when you could win?

Not so fast.

Here’s the psychological trap: sportsbooks love when bettors focus on the number of wins, not their breakeven percentage. Buying the hook will help you win more bets — but unless you're doing it in the right spots, and sparingly, you'll actually lose more money over time.

Why? Because that extra half point doesn’t come free. It costs more juice.

Let’s break this down.

It All Starts With The Odds

In sports betting, the odds (also called the vig or juice) is the cut the sportsbook takes for facilitating your bet. Most standard bets have odds of -110, which means you’d need to wager $110 to win $100.

When you buy a half point, the juice increases. For most numbers, buying a half point costs about 10 cents, bumping your bet from -110 to -120.

But when you're buying onto or off of key numbers like 3 or 7, it gets expensive — often as high as -130 or -135 for a half point. 3 and 7 are considered key numbers because of how football scoring works (field goal worth 3 points and touchdown plus extra point worth 7). This about how common a game ends by a team winning exactly 3 or 7 points. These numbers show up a lot, so oddsmakers charge more when you try to buy around them.

The Break-Even Problem

To know if paying that extra juice is worth it, you need to understand break-even percentage — the minimum percentage of bets you must win to break even AKA avoid losing money.

At -110, you need to win 52.4% of your bets to break even.
At -135, that number jumps to 57.4%.

In short: when you pay more juice, your margin for error shrinks dramatically. This is the math the sportsbooks DON’T want you to know! To calculate the break-even percentage you just need to start with the odds.

For minus odds bets (i.e. -110) the formula is: (Odds)/(Odds+100). Do not include the minus sign. So for -110 it is: 110/(110+100) = 110/210 = 52.38%

For plus odds bets (i.e. +150) the formula is: 100/(Odds+100). So for +150 it is 100/(150+100) = 100/250 = 40%

Real-World Study: Buying the Hook vs. Not

So what some fancy schmancy formula says you shouldn’t buy the hook. We live in the real world, not in some textbook! Well, let’s look at some real data, courtesy of Action Network, which analyzed NFL games from 2003 to 2018.

Scenario 1: No Hook

If you bet every team that closed at +3, you would have gone 316-287-61 against the spread.

That’s a 52.4% win rate — exactly break-even at -110 odds.

Scenario 2: Buying the Hook to +3.5

If you bought the half point to get to +3.5, all those pushes would become wins.

Your new record? 377-287
Win rate? 56.7%

Sounds great, right?

But here’s the catch: You paid -135 odds for those bets. And at that price, you needed to win 57.4% of the time just to break even.
So despite winning more bets, you ended up losing 8 units overall.

The Bottom Line

Buying the hook feels good — but it’s often a trap.
Unless you’re winning at a very high rate or getting favorable odds, paying more juice eats away your profit faster than you realize.

What should you do instead?

Focus on getting the best line available across sportsbooks. Price shopping is your best friend!
Check lines early! You should be checking lines for NFL the Sunday or Monday the week before the game is played. These are when lines open and are at their easiest to beat.
Learn to convert odds into break-even percentages so you know what you’re really paying.
Take the guesswork out of it by subscribing to our Football Season Pass. Our CFB and NFL models show you how much edge exists in every game! You can determine the best bets of the week and the edges automatically update as the lines move so you never have to second guess!

Want to Dive Deeper?

We explain break-even percentages, key numbers, and betting fundamentals in more depth on our Keys of Sports Betting video series. Check it out to build smarter habits from day one.

And as always — good luck and bet responsibly.

The Sportsbook’s Trick: Winning More Bets, But Losing More Money