Predicting Every 2025 AFC Division Winner
The AFC is home to perennial powerhouses led by seasoned vets and rising newcomers alike. With debate on which divisions are passing torch and which will stay on throne, let’s take a look at our official predictions for each AFC division winner.
Our predictions are not based on hype and hunches. Like our name suggests, everything we do here is based on facts and data. We created a blended market power rating to use our data alongside the top power ratings and simulated this season 10,000 times. We use this method when making to find the best futures bets which paid off as we went 5-2 last year including correctly picking the Eagles to win the Super Bowl.
AFC West Division Winner Prediction:
Kansas City Chiefs
2025 AFC West Division Winner Prediction
For the Kansas City Chiefs, excellence has become the expectation. Coming off back-to-back Super Bowl victories in 2022 and 2023, the Chiefs entered 2024 aiming to do what no team in NFL history has done: win three straight championships. That ambitious quest fell just short with a loss in Super Bowl LIX, but it’s far too simple to label a 15-2 campaign a failure. In fact, anyone looking back on Kansas City’s 2024 season sees a team that was historically dominant and still very much at the peak of its powers. The Chiefs won 15 games – the most in franchise history – even resting starters in Week 18 after a blazing 15-1 start. Their goals may have been higher than everyone else’s, but a season that ends one win shy of a Lombardi Trophy hardly dims the aura around this team.
We give the Chiefs a 37.6% chance to win the West over the reinvigorated Broncos but market hype doesn’t make this a good value bet. The true odds for this bet should be +166 and at the time of this article, the best odds are -110 so you’re definitely paying a hype tax. We can’t stop you from backing the Chiefs but just know there are better value bets out there.
AFC East Division Winner Prediction: Buffalo Bills
Long gone are the days of the Patriots terrorizing the East. We are officially in the Bills Era. The Bills have been regular season juggernauts in recent years, compiling 61 wins over the last five seasons. In 2024, Buffalo continued that dominance as Josh Allen earned his first MVP award while leading the team to another AFC East title. Along the way, they even notched a statement win over Kansas City, reinforcing their status as a conference heavyweight. Yet, for all the Bills’ success, the postseason remains an unmet frontier. The front office doubled down on defensive improvements in the offseason, and the schedule sets up favorably for a potential No. 1 seed. We give Buffalo a 59.2% chance to capture the AFC East crown again.
If you thought the Chiefs tax was bad, you’re going to want to look away for this. The fair odds for a Bills division winner bet should be -145 but the cheapest price is -260 at FanDuel. Yikes!
AFC North Division Winner Prediction: Baltimore Ravens
If you look up “cheat code” in the dictionary, you’re going to see a picture of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on the same team. That’s exactly what the Ravens had last year and it created a nightmare for defenses. How do you stop King Henry and Lamar in the same backfield? Load the box to stuff the run, and Jackson, the league’s most efficient quarterback against stacked fronts, will beat you over the top. Play extra DBs for the pass scheme, good luck stopping freight train wearing a #22 jersey. Indeed, the plan worked brilliantly and if it weren’t for a bunch of untimely turnovers and the Drop Heard ‘Round The World from Mark Andrews, the Ravens could have been playing for a Super Bowl victory.
There’s still reason for optimism though and our model agrees as we give them a 58.8% chance of winning the North. Even better? This is accurately priced! We make the fair odds for this bet at -142 and that is exactly the price you can find at multiple books making this a good bet.
AFC South Division Winner Prediction: Houston Texans
There were the Texans and then there was everyone else. The AFC South was ugly last year which makes backing the Houston seem like a no brainer and at the current odds, maybe even a great bet. Now we do need to call out that Indianapolis had trouble keeping Anthony Richardson healthy and his name has been thrown around in plenty of trade rumors recently so this is one we’re keeping our eye out on. Even still it’s hard to deny what CJ Stroud has done in his short time in the league. Houston went 10-7 in both 2023 and 2024, making Stroud one of just eight quarterbacks since 2000 to start his career with consecutive 9+ win seasons. With concerns of a Sophomore Slump officially behind him, we give the Texans a 38.2% chance of winning the South with a fair value price of +162. Unfortunately, the best odds currently are +115 at DraftKings so if you’re looking to be a Texans backer, you may want to wait and see if Indy makes a splash at QB so you can get better odds.
Side note: If you believe in the Colts there is some great value on them as division winners. We make the number +283 and you can get them as high as +380.